NHL best bets: Expert picks and predictions for Saturday 4/27

Panthers vs. Lightning

Saturday, April 27, 5 p.m. ET, TBS & truTV
Steven Stamkos Anytime Goalscorer (+170, FanDuel)

By Carol Schram

It’s getting late early for the Tampa Bay Lightning. They’re now on the precipice of losing a playoff series for the first time ever to their cross-state rivals, the Florida Panthers. And if they do go down, it immediately raises the question of whether captain Steven Stamkos will return next season.

A life-long Bolt, the 34-year-old is a two-time Stanley Cup champion who holds franchise records in multiple categories, including games played, goals and points. And he hasn’t lost his fastball. The two-time Rocket Richard winner logged his seventh 40-goal season in 2023-24. And in a series where Tampa Bay has scored just seven times in the first three games, Stamkos has three of those goals — the only Lightning player with more than one.

Stamkos has never been a perimeter player, and that’s true this year as well. He has logged 11 hits in the series against the Panthers so far, as well as a couple of key blocks.

If this is the end of his time with the team that drafted him first overall in 2008, he’s going down swinging.

Goals have been hard to come by against Sergei Bobrovsky, but the captain should have one more in him as the Lightning look to fight another day on Saturday.

Pick: Steven Stamkos Anytime Goalscorer (+170 at FanDuel)

Panthers vs. Lightning

Saturday, April 27, 5 p.m. ET, TBS & truTV
Andrei Vasilevskiy Over 28.5 Saves (-110, BetMGM)

By Grant White

The Tampa Bay Lightning face the unenviable distinction of becoming the first team eliminated from this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs. They face a 3-0 series deficit against the Florida Panthers, and they need a standout performance on Saturday if they hope to stave off elimination.

Although we can't say this is true for the whole team, Andrei Vasilevskiy has maintained his usual standards into the postseason. The Lightning netminder had an off night on Thursday, stopping 26 of 30 shots in taking the loss.

That halted an extended run in which he stopped at least 30 shots, a trend he can reinvigorate on Saturday.

Prior to Game 3, Vasilevskiy had totaled at least 30 saves in four of his previous five. Astute bettors might recognize that inefficiency for what it is – the Lightning giving up too many shots against – but the Russian netminder has been up to the task throughout.

So far this series, the Panthers have walked all over the Lightning, and we're not expecting that to change in Game 4. Nevertheless, Vasilevskiy has one of the best playoff pedigrees of the past five years, and he should be ready to limit the damage in a must-win scenario.

As a result, we're taking Vasilevskiy to record at least 29 saves – which leaves us a bit of wiggle room. BetMGM has the best odds at -110.

Pick: Andrei Vasilevskiy Over 28.5 Saves (-110 at BetMGM)

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs

Saturday, April 27, 8 p.m. ET, TBS & truTV
David Pastrnak Anytime Goalscorer (+120, BetMGM)

By Tony Sartori

Boston forward David Pastrnak is one of the best pure goalscorers in hockey, and now is the time to buy low on a guy who has just scored once thus far in this first round of the playoffs.

It's not too difficult to score on Toronto, given that the Bruins have done so 11 times across the first three games of the series.

The Leafs bleed high-danger scoring chances at a high rate, ranking 12th among the 16 playoff teams this postseason in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing up this inefficient defense is goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who continues to struggle with the product in front of him.

Dating back to the regular season, Samsonov is 1-3-1 with a fade-worthy .855 SV% and 4.05 GAA over his past five starts.

"Pasta" was between +100 and -110 to score in each of the first three games of this series, so +120 is a good buy-low number on the second-best shooter in this series. Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on this prop at +120 via BetMGM, a line that is 10-19 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

Pick: David Pastrnak Anytime Goalscorer (+120 at BetMGM)

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs

Saturday, April 27, 8 p.m. ET, TBS & truTV
William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer (+200, FanDuel)

By Greg Liodice

The curious case of William Nylander’s absence in the first three games of the playoffs was the story of the postseason.

But now, he’s back, and he didn’t score 40 goals for no reason. He was third all season for the Leafs in Corsi, and fourth in expected goals. Along with that, as I mentioned in my Bruins vs. Maple Leafs game guide, his line with Tyler Bertuzzi and John Tavares was one of the more efficient ones in the league (minimum of 300 minutes played).

I’ve always been a fan of the way Nylander plays, and I think he can help a Leafs’ power play that has been dry these past three games.

Don’t get me wrong, they’ll be facing a Bruins penalty kill that has dominated all season long, but the Leafs are due.

Historically, the Bruins have done a good job of stifling Nylander on the scoresheet. The last time he posted a goal against them was on April 29, 2022.

However, I think the implementation of No. 88 will offer a different dynamic than what the Bruins have seen in this series. That’s why I think he can kick his playoffs off the right way and score a goal right away.

Pick: William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer (+200 at FanDuel)