Guardians pitching depth takes major hit amid slew of injuries

Guardians setup man Trevor Stephan will undergo a UCL reconstruction procedure (i.e. Tommy John surgery) within the next seven to 14 days, the team announced. Cleveland had shut Stephan down for three weeks in late February, but the discomfort in his arm persisted. Subsequent testing has revealed that his ulnar collateral ligament is “not providing adequate stability.”

There’s further discouraging news on righty Daniel Espino — formerly one of baseball's top prospects. The 23-year-old righty, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a capsule tear that required shoulder surgery, underwent a second shoulder procedure on Wednesday to repair new capsule damage and his rotator cuff. He’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season, though an exact timetable for his recovery isn’t yet known, per the team.

In addition to that pair of injuries, starting pitcher Gavin Williams will begin the season on the injured list, reports Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’s been slowed by some discomfort in his right elbow this spring. A recent MRI came back clean, but he’ll go another four days before he resumes his throwing program and will need to build back up from there. He’ll be about two weeks removed from his last game action by that point.

If that’s not enough bad news for Guards fans, Bell adds that lefty Sam Hentges is headed to have some swelling in his finger checked out. There’s no indication that’s a serious issue, but it’s yet another health situation for the team (and fans) to monitor.

The 28-year-old Stephan has proven to be one of any team's best Rule 5 selections in recent memory. Taken out of the Yankees organization before the 2021 campaign, he’s logged 63 or more innings in each of his three seasons in Cleveland. Stephan owns six saves and 50 holds over that stretch, having climbed the ladder from low-leverage and mop-up settings to a prominent late-inning piece in the Guards’ past two seasons.

From 2022-23, Stephan tossed 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a stout 28% strikeout rate and better-than-average walk and ground-ball rates of 7.8% and 44.6%, respectively. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) feel he’s been even better than his already sharp earned run average.

Stephan signed a four-year, $10M contract extension covering the 2023-26 seasons last spring. That deal also includes club options for the 2027 and 2028 seasons. He’ll be paid $1.6M this year as he rehabs throughout what would otherwise have been his first arbitration season. He’s guaranteed salaries of $2.3M in 2025 and $3.5M in 2026 before the team must decide between a $7.25M club option of $1.25M buyout for the 2027 season. If Cleveland picks that option up, they’ll also have a $7.5M option for the 2028 campaign. There’s no buyout on that second option.

With Stephan now ticketed for the 60-day injured list, the Guardians will lean on trade acquisition Scott Barlow as the primary setup man for All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. Righties Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin will also be in the mix for leverage spots, as will Hentges, assuming his finger injury doesn’t prove to be something serious. It’s possible the Guardians could look outside the organization for some additional arms to join the fray, though that’d likely come via waivers or perhaps a DFA trade late in camp. The free-agent market for bullpen arms has been largely picked over. Cleveland didn’t have much money to spend this winter, making it seem unlikely that any additional salary will be added.

The news on Williams also carries an immediate impact on Cleveland. While there’s no indication he’s dealing with a significant injury or facing a long-term absence, he’ll miss at least a couple of starts to begin the year. The 24-year-old ranked among MLB’s top pitching prospects before making his debut in 2023, and he lived up to that billing with 82 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during a sharp rookie campaign.

Williams’ 23.5% strikeout rate was narrowly above average, while his 10.7% walk rate is slightly inflated and could improve a couple of ticks. That shaky command prompted metrics like FIP (4.05) and SIERA (4.61) to take a more bearish outlook. Still, Williams throws hard, misses bats at average or better levels and limited hard contact rather nicely (88 mph average exit velocity, 38.6% hard-hit rate). There’s plenty to like about his forward outlook, and his presence alongside fellow sophomores Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen has the makings of the next wave of impressive homegrown talent from Cleveland’s unrivaled pitching development pipeline.

Espino, 23, once shined brightest among that incredible stock of young pitchers in the Cleveland system, but injuries have completely derailed his trajectory. Beyond what will now be a two-year absence from the mound due to multiple shoulder surgeries, Espino was also limited to just 18 innings in 2022. That year included a monthslong stay on the injured list due to tendinitis in his knee, as well as a second absence surrounding shoulder pain that has now clearly spiraled into an overwhelmingly problematic issue. Before the injury deluge, Espino dazzled scouts with a triple-digit fastball, plus or better slider and two other pitches — changeup, curveball — projected to be at least average offerings.

On the one hand, Espino has youth on his side. Conversely, consecutive missed seasons due to shoulder surgeries are a massive roadblock for any pitcher to overcome. His last procedure came with a timetable of 12 to 14 months. A similar or even lengthier timetable could push him deeper into the 2025 season. Espino will have thrown just 18 innings over four years by that point. The obvious hope is that he can put all these injuries behind him and eventually reach the majors, even if in a shorter relief role to help mitigate some workload concerns. Still, injury troubles of this magnitude are hard to overcome.

As for Hentges, he might not be a household name, but he’s a credit to Cleveland’s pitching development. The 2014 fourth-rounder was hit hard as a starter in his debut campaign in ’21 but has since emerged as one of the team’s top relievers. From 2022-23, he’s pitched 114 1/3 innings with an excellent 2.91 ERA, a very strong 27.4% strikeout rate, a better-than-average 7.9% walk rate and a sensational 60.1% grounder rate.